WEBVTT

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(radio): ...and a hearty good
morning, everyone!

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Outside dense fog. 31 degrees.

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Winds south-east,
13 miles an hour

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and barometer at 29.70
and falling very slowly...

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- The heat wave that has
settled over France

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has shattered temperature
records...

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(overlapping voices)

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- The tropical hurricane, which
has moved up the Atlantic coast

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during the last two days,
is expected

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to affect the Grand Bank area
this afternoon.

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Winds from the East
will reach a peak...

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- ... life was returning
to normal

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after the freezing rain
that hit...

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- A major snowstorm has hit
Central and Eastern U.S.,

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paralysing the nation\'s capital.

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The city was buried under more
than 30 centimetres of snow.

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The storm comes the day before

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the opening of an international
conference

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on the reduction
of greenhouse gases.

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In the opinion
of most scientists,

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the rapid increase
in greenhouse gas emissions

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is partly the cause
of the climate change

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we have been witnessing
all over the planet...

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- The natural
greenhouse effect,

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caused by water vapour,
carbon dioxide, and methane,

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is extremely beneficial:

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if we didn\'t have
those greenhouse gases,

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the mean temperature
on the planet

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would be minus 18 degrees.

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It would be absolutely
unlivable.

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Because of these entirely
natural compounds,

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the mean temperature is 15
degrees, which has facilitated

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the development
of our civilizations.

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But what concerns us is
the enhanced greenhouse effect

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linked to human activities.

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(radio): The torrential rains
have caused landslides

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and flooding, resulting
in nearly 50,000 deaths

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last week in Venezuela.

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Over a single week,
251 litres of water

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per square metre
have fallen...

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- Climate change by itself
has been going on

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since the earth began.

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So often, and you see
sceptics --

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these so called sceptic crowd
pick up on that

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and they say climate change
has been with us forever.

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It\'s true.
Climate has changed forever.

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The question,
the key question is not,

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Will climate change in the
future? Of course it will.

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Is what are we doing
to cause climate to change?

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I mean people point to glacier,
into glacier cycles.

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And we have a reasonably
good understanding

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as to why that, that occurs.

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But that\'s entirely irrelevant
as to wether or not

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we putting in greenhouse gazes

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is going to change the climate
in the future.

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(narrator): In these early days
of the 21st century,

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climate disturbances are
perceptible everywhere.

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And scientists are in agreement:
global warming

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isa reality.

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It is most evident in so-
called \"at-risk\" regions

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like the Canadian Arctic,

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where its effects can
already be observed.

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(radio): In Shishmaref, Alaska,
the last storm

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carried off 18 feet
of shoreline.

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The mayor has requested aid
from the state authorities

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to speed up the process

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of moving the village.

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- There are the three
classical hot spots

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of climate variability
in the world.

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One being the Western Arctic,

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that is the part of the Arctic
north of Alaska

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and Canada,

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the Mackenzie Valley area.

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The second is the Antarctic
Peninsula, that tip of land

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that sticks up towards
South America.

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And the third is
the Siberian Arctic,

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and there we have reports

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of permafrost melting
at unprecedented rates:

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up to 30 metres a year
of coastline retreat.

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Now that\'s enough
to send shivers

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up any land developer\'s spine.

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And it certainly is something

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that is going to impact
on the northern residents.

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(narrator): Like the inhabitants
of many other

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northern villages,

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the people of Sachs Harbour
on Banks Island

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are already feeling the impact
of melting permafrost.

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The drainage of lakes
into the sea

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could even deprive
the community

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of its source of drinking water.

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- When I was growing up, uh,

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it was quite cold
all the time.

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As the years go by, it started
to get noticed in the mid-70s,

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that it\'s gradually warming up
little by little.

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And by the 1990s,
we had a very warm summer,

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and there was some landslides

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and banks and stuff like that.

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And also there was one lake
that drained out

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and there\'s another one
right now

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in the process of very
getting close

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to being drained out
into the ocean there.

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And we\'re finding different
species of birds

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that we haven\'t seen
up here before.

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And also there is
some salmon,

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a few salmon

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that we did run across
a few years ago.

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(narrator): In these regions,

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the effect of climate change
is visible:

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the southern boundary of the
Arctic is moving northwards.

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Southern ecosystems
with new plants

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and animal species like fish,
birds and insects

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are migrating north.

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- When I was a teenager,
the people used to be able

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to predict the weather maybe
a day or two ahead of time.

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But now you can\'t really

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because it changes
so rapidly, you know.

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(radio): Once again,
forecasters are calling

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for bad weather in London.

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Low-pressure areas
on both sides of the Atlantic

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will continue to bring rain.

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Tomorrow evening,
a front from the west...

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(narrator): Long-term
weather forecasts

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are now part of a sophisticated
new science.

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To better understand
the weather of tomorrow,

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climatologists design
complex mathematical models.

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- For us, what defines
climate, in daily life,

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is temperature, precipitation,
and wind.

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So to start with,
that\'s the objective

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of a climate model.

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To be able to simulate
the movement of air,

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we have to separate it
into many parallelepipeds,

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so we set out a grid
on the planet.

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Then we divide up
the atmosphere

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into a series
of vertical layers.

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That gives us a parallelepiped
within which

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the laws of fluid mechanics that
we have set out are followed.

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- If you were able
to step inside

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the climate that we simulate,
you would feel weather

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that wasn\'t exactly the same
as the weather outside.

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But weather that is pretty
close, you know.

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It wouldn\'t be a world that\'s
entirely unfamiliar to you.

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So we\'re, we\'re really
trying to capture

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the short-time scale
of variability.

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of the system.

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(narrator): To ensure
that a model is reliable,

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annual surface temperature
variations from red to purple

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are simulated and
the geographical distribution

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of temperatures over
the seasons is monitored.

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When the simulation
is compared

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with actual measurements,

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the model accurately
mimics reality.

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- When you think about
the Arctic and climate,

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it\'s important
to always remember

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that the Arctic is part
of a larger climate system.

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And you really can\'t take
the two apart.

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And it\'s also useful
to think of the climate system

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as having a job to do.

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And that job is to deal with
the excess amount of heat

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that comes in, in the equatorial
and subtropical regions,

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and transport that heat
northwards

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or southwards
to the polar regions,

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where it can be lost
back into space.

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And the way that that heat
is transported

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is by the atmosphere
and the oceans.

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And let\'s say that half
of the work in that job

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is done by the atmosphere.

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And another half is done
by ocean currents.

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(narrator): The polar climate
is unique.

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It\'s where the planet\'s greatest
temperature variations occur.

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This phenomenon is closely
linked to a sunshine cycle

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in which the long nights
of winter

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give way, in summer,
to the midnight sun.

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In summer,
there is an explosion of life.

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The specialized wildlife
that live here

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have adapted
to a long period

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of winter ice cover and a
short open water season.

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Ice covers 14 million square
kilometres in winter.

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It\'s reduced by half in summer.

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However, there is
increasing evidence

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that the ice cover is becoming
permanently smaller.

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Over the past 40 years,

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it appears to have lost
40% of its volume.

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(radio): The flooding of
the Saguenay region of Quebec

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was the result
of excessive rainfall

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between July 17th and 27th.

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More than 2,000 mm of rain
fell during that period,

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double the average
for the region.

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Electricity and telephone
services

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were knocked out and hundreds
of houses were washed away

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by the floods.

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The authorities
announced today

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that some 16,000 people
were evacuated

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from their homes.

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- Once you look
at all the evidence,

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then you can see that
there is substantial warming

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from the ice cores,
this is from the ice cores.

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You can see the warming
that has been going on.

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This is pretty well unarguable,
I think.

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The ice caps, ice sheets, uh...

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are essentially archives

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of past atmospheres
and temperatures.

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So if you drilled down
through it,

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you drill through clean snow
and then last summer surface...

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But by hand you could go down
20 meters of that order.

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That is probably snow
from last year.

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And then you take it back
to the lab.

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And then you carefully
cut it,

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and then melt it and analyze it.

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Up north, you find the
dirtiest snows is in the spring.

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And then it cleans up a bit in
the summer, then it\'s, you know,

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then it starts to get
dirty in the winter

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then very dirty in the spring.

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So you get these sequences.

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They are almost like tree rings.

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In the Canadian Arctic,

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say in the middle of an ice cap,

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you drill down the bedrock,

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you\'d get ice-age ice
at the bottom.

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Ice from the last ice age
is still there.

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So you get a fairly good
resolution record

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from about 11,000 years ago
to the present.

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And surprisingly perhaps

00:13:15.291 --> 00:13:18.375
you find that once it comes out
of the ice age,

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it very rapidly got warm.

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Warmer then today in fact.

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And it\'s been persistently
cooling ever since

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until about 150 years ago.

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Then a rapid kind of warming,

00:13:32.250 --> 00:13:34.875
followed by a little bit
of a plateau

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without much warming at all

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and now since 1985, we\'ve really
gone into warm mode.

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And the last warming,

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it shows that carbon dioxide

00:13:46.375 --> 00:13:51.500
plays a good 50%
of the cause for warming.

00:13:51.500 --> 00:13:53.542
Where did that carbon dioxide
come from?

00:13:53.542 --> 00:13:57.041
It\'s got to come from
fossil fuels, obviously.

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(narrator): In industrialized
countries,

00:13:59.750 --> 00:14:01.208
carbon dioxide emissions

00:14:01.208 --> 00:14:04.208
from burning fossil fuels
comes equally

00:14:04.208 --> 00:14:08.041
from three sources:
industrial production,

00:14:08.041 --> 00:14:11.250
motor vehicles,
and domestic consumption.

00:14:11.250 --> 00:14:12.999
- This graph represents

00:14:12.999 --> 00:14:14.999
the increase
in carbon dioxide content

00:14:14.999 --> 00:14:19.000
from the end of the 19th century
to the end of the 21st century.

00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:24.667
Back in 1880, the content
was 300 parts per million.

00:14:24.667 --> 00:14:26.000
It began increasing

00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:28.667
in the mid-20th century
due to human activities.

00:14:28.667 --> 00:14:30.041
Today, carbon dioxide emissions

00:14:30.041 --> 00:14:33.542
represent 7 billion tonnes
per year.

00:14:35.417 --> 00:14:38.291
Under this scenario,
by the end of the 21st century,

00:14:38.291 --> 00:14:42.709
we\'ll be up to 25 billion tonnes
of carbon dioxide a year.

00:14:42.709 --> 00:14:44.999
Obviously, that\'s a
worst-case scenario

00:14:44.999 --> 00:14:47.500
and we hope it won\'t work out
that way because it makes

00:14:47.500 --> 00:14:49.999
no sense in regard to the
problem we\'re dealing with.

00:14:49.999 --> 00:14:53.999
You have to understand
that every year,

00:14:53.999 --> 00:14:55.999
the continental
and oceanic biosphere

00:14:55.999 --> 00:14:58.999
absorbs between 2 and 3
billion tonnes of carbon.

00:14:58.999 --> 00:15:02.792
So in order to stabilize
the greenhouse effect,

00:15:02.792 --> 00:15:05.500
the sources must
match the sinks.

00:15:05.500 --> 00:15:07.999
This shows that there\'s
a factor of ten

00:15:07.999 --> 00:15:10.709
between what is emitted
and what should be emitted

00:15:10.709 --> 00:15:14.500
to stabilize the level
of the greenhouse effect.

00:15:15.500 --> 00:15:17.250
(narrator): Some carbon dioxide
emissions

00:15:17.250 --> 00:15:19.999
are trapped and stored
by forests and oceans,

00:15:19.999 --> 00:15:25.125
which therefore are considered
to be \"carbon sinks\".

00:15:26.959 --> 00:15:29.500
The Beaufort Sea,
covered in ice part of the year,

00:15:29.500 --> 00:15:33.999
is bordered by the continental
shelf and the polar ice cap.

00:15:33.999 --> 00:15:36.917
It receives large quantities
of fresh water

00:15:36.917 --> 00:15:38.333
from the Mackenzie Delta.

00:15:38.333 --> 00:15:42.959
The study of carbon
dioxide fluctuations here

00:15:42.959 --> 00:15:46.834
is of particular interest
to scientists.

00:15:50.999 --> 00:15:52.417
- The CASES project is a study

00:15:52.417 --> 00:15:54.917
that stands for Canadian Arctic
Shelf Exchange Study.

00:15:54.917 --> 00:15:58.917
We\'re now in the Mackenzie Shelf
Beaufort Sea area.

00:15:58.917 --> 00:16:01.792
So we\'re interested
in understanding better

00:16:01.792 --> 00:16:03.375
the impact of our climate

00:16:03.375 --> 00:16:07.375
and mostly see the variability
and change

00:16:07.375 --> 00:16:09.166
on the exchanges of carbon

00:16:09.166 --> 00:16:11.458
from the shelf
to the deep basin

00:16:11.458 --> 00:16:13.583
and also through
the biological processes

00:16:13.583 --> 00:16:16.917
that are omnipresent in
this very complex system.

00:16:16.917 --> 00:16:19.208
So, the originality of CASES

00:16:19.208 --> 00:16:23.125
is that it\'s not
a monospecific study,

00:16:23.125 --> 00:16:25.041
it\'s a very very
multidisciplinary,

00:16:25.041 --> 00:16:27.999
multicountry study -
over 10 countries are involved

00:16:27.999 --> 00:16:32.542
and from viruses to whales,
people on this ship are watching

00:16:32.542 --> 00:16:36.333
every step of the ecosystem.
We\'ve got biologists,

00:16:36.333 --> 00:16:38.166
bio-chemists,
physical oceanographers;

00:16:38.166 --> 00:16:41.125
it\'s a very complete program
that\'s trying

00:16:41.125 --> 00:16:45.000
to actually set the basis
of these processes.

00:16:52.417 --> 00:16:55.750
(narrator): The first stage
of this in-depth study

00:16:55.750 --> 00:16:58.750
is to measure
atmospheric exchanges.

00:16:58.750 --> 00:17:01.625
What enters the air and
the dynamics of the gases

00:17:01.625 --> 00:17:04.333
that circulate there?

00:17:06.375 --> 00:17:10.041
Any alteration
in atmospheric exchange

00:17:10.041 --> 00:17:12.542
can have a significant impact

00:17:12.542 --> 00:17:15.999
on the Arctic ecosystem\'s
natural cycles.

00:17:19.999 --> 00:17:21.667
- One of the reasons why

00:17:21.667 --> 00:17:23.792
the Arctic is particularly
sensitive

00:17:23.792 --> 00:17:25.959
is that a small change
in temperature

00:17:25.959 --> 00:17:28.792
can lead to a very large
change in conditions.

00:17:28.792 --> 00:17:32.625
Especially close to the
freezing point of sea water.

00:17:32.625 --> 00:17:34.458
If arctic temperatures
decrease a little,

00:17:34.458 --> 00:17:36.583
than it means
there would be more ice.

00:17:36.583 --> 00:17:41.041
The ice reflects more sun light,
making the surface cooler

00:17:41.041 --> 00:17:44.667
and so there\'s a positive
feedback there.

00:17:44.667 --> 00:17:48.959
Equally well, if the Arctic
warms up a little --

00:17:48.959 --> 00:17:50.291
and it doesn\'t have
to be all year,

00:17:50.291 --> 00:17:53.250
but warming up in the springtime
or warming up in the autumn

00:17:53.250 --> 00:17:55.999
when the ice is either
forming or melting is important.

00:17:55.999 --> 00:18:02.125
If there\'s warming, the ice
will melt sooner or form later.

00:18:02.125 --> 00:18:03.999
When the ice is not there,

00:18:03.999 --> 00:18:07.999
the ocean absorbs
a lot more solar radiation.

00:18:07.999 --> 00:18:11.000
And that solar radiation
warms the ocean.

00:18:11.000 --> 00:18:15.458
Yes if it warms,
it will continue to warm.

00:18:23.999 --> 00:18:27.333
- Well, what happens in the
Central Canadian Arctic Basin,

00:18:27.333 --> 00:18:29.125
sea ice is formed in the fall;

00:18:29.125 --> 00:18:30.792
as you drop
the temperatures down,

00:18:30.792 --> 00:18:33.542
the ocean will freeze
at about minus one,

00:18:33.542 --> 00:18:35.208
minus one point eight.

00:18:35.208 --> 00:18:37.458
And when you start
to form that ice,

00:18:37.458 --> 00:18:39.208
it caps the ocean
from the atmosphere.

00:18:39.208 --> 00:18:42.709
That\'s the most significant
thing that sea ice does.

00:18:42.709 --> 00:18:45.625
It slows down the movement
of energy

00:18:45.625 --> 00:18:47.667
from the ocean
to the atmosphere.

00:18:47.667 --> 00:18:50.333
As soon as that ice
cover is solid and formed,

00:18:50.333 --> 00:18:52.792
then the air will cool off
considerably.

00:18:52.792 --> 00:18:55.999
Now that first-year ice,
at the end of a season,

00:18:55.999 --> 00:18:57.834
if it doesn\'t completely melt,

00:18:57.834 --> 00:19:00.375
it will stay on through
the summer melt period

00:19:00.375 --> 00:19:03.333
and it will become what
we call multi-year sea ice.

00:19:03.333 --> 00:19:04.999
And as it survives
those summers,

00:19:04.999 --> 00:19:08.333
of course, it gets progressively
thicker and thicker and thicker,

00:19:08.333 --> 00:19:11.166
as you go through the season.

00:19:11.166 --> 00:19:14.458
The way the ice circulation
works in this area here,

00:19:14.458 --> 00:19:16.417
is it\'ll get caught in a dryer

00:19:16.417 --> 00:19:18.250
and that dryer circulates
with time.

00:19:18.250 --> 00:19:21.208
And it\'ll just continue
to cycle around the Arctic.

00:19:21.208 --> 00:19:22.375
Ultimately though,
what happens

00:19:22.375 --> 00:19:25.000
is that ice will eventually
be flushed out

00:19:25.000 --> 00:19:28.291
through Fram Strait
into the North Atlantic.

00:19:28.291 --> 00:19:31.166
And there it will melt.

00:19:31.792 --> 00:19:36.709
(narrator): The Arctic has a
distinctive system of currents,

00:19:36.709 --> 00:19:38.500
a cardiovascular system.

00:19:38.500 --> 00:19:42.542
Water masses from
the Atlantic and the Pacific

00:19:42.542 --> 00:19:45.500
follow complex routes
around basins

00:19:45.500 --> 00:19:47.083
before emerging in the Atlantic

00:19:47.083 --> 00:19:51.083
along the Labrador coast and
the eastern coast of Greenland.

00:19:51.083 --> 00:19:54.792
There, they meet up
with warm salty water

00:19:54.792 --> 00:19:56.333
carried by the Gulf Stream,

00:19:56.333 --> 00:19:59.375
which is part of the great
ocean-current system

00:19:59.375 --> 00:20:01.250
that encircles the planet.

00:20:01.250 --> 00:20:06.458
In this region, large water
masses of different densities

00:20:06.458 --> 00:20:07.999
collide continuously,

00:20:07.999 --> 00:20:11.083
pushing the colder waters
towards the ocean floor

00:20:11.083 --> 00:20:14.458
and setting convection
currents in motion.

00:20:14.458 --> 00:20:18.542
This contributes
to climate control.

00:20:19.999 --> 00:20:21.500
As it moves north,

00:20:21.500 --> 00:20:23.999
the Gulf Stream disperses
some of its heat

00:20:23.999 --> 00:20:25.500
in the northern hemisphere.

00:20:25.500 --> 00:20:30.542
Without this, Western Europe
would have a Siberian climate!

00:20:31.542 --> 00:20:34.375
But if the temperature
and quantity of fresh water

00:20:34.375 --> 00:20:36.999
from the Arctic Ocean
were to change,

00:20:36.999 --> 00:20:40.417
this crucial cycle
would be disrupted.

00:20:40.417 --> 00:20:42.250
A predicted slower current

00:20:42.250 --> 00:20:46.709
would result in a major
climatic variation.

00:20:47.583 --> 00:20:52.999
- It\'s impossible to give
clear and simple pictures

00:20:52.999 --> 00:20:56.959
about how the Earth
is going to respond

00:20:56.959 --> 00:20:58.750
to these changes in patterns.

00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:01.417
However when we build
our society

00:21:01.417 --> 00:21:04.999
and we build our agriculture
and our economics

00:21:04.999 --> 00:21:07.417
expecting things
are not gonna change,

00:21:07.417 --> 00:21:10.166
we\'re making a big mistake.

00:21:20.875 --> 00:21:23.083
-Bonjour, Jean Jouzel,
je suis heureux

00:21:23.083 --> 00:21:24.959
N de vous accueillir à IDRIS.

00:21:24.959 --> 00:21:26.500
-Oui, d\'autant plus
que pour moi,

00:21:26.500 --> 00:21:28.709
c\'est la première fois
que je viens ici...

00:21:28.709 --> 00:21:31.834
(narrator): To try to understand
how the planet will respond,

00:21:31.834 --> 00:21:34.000
scientists are using
climate models

00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:36.709
that require an astronomical
number

00:21:36.709 --> 00:21:38.208
of mathematical operations

00:21:38.208 --> 00:21:40.999
to integrate ever more
numerous variables.

00:21:40.999 --> 00:21:44.291
Even supercomputers have
to grind away

00:21:44.291 --> 00:21:45.917
for nearly a year

00:21:45.917 --> 00:21:49.083
to simulate a century
of climate change.

00:21:50.750 --> 00:21:51.750
- These machines,

00:21:51.750 --> 00:21:53.625
this group
of three machines here,

00:21:53.625 --> 00:21:57.500
are vectorial supercomputers.
They produce around

00:21:57.500 --> 00:22:01.875
300 billion instructions
or operations per second

00:22:01.875 --> 00:22:06.333
and they run 24 hours a day,
365 days a year.

00:22:37.999 --> 00:22:39.999
(narrator): The projected
distribution

00:22:39.999 --> 00:22:42.083
of temperature changes
for 2050,

00:22:42.083 --> 00:22:44.959
shows that polar regions
will be affected

00:22:44.959 --> 00:22:49.250
to a much greater degree
than tropical regions.

00:22:56.542 --> 00:23:00.166
- Right now, the models predict
that sea ice may become

00:23:00.166 --> 00:23:02.834
as seasonally absent
as early as 2050.

00:23:02.834 --> 00:23:06.709
Which means that there
would be no ice cover

00:23:06.709 --> 00:23:07.999
in the summer time.

00:23:07.999 --> 00:23:11.458
That has very
far-reaching effects

00:23:11.458 --> 00:23:13.999
because it would mean
that the weather

00:23:13.999 --> 00:23:15.875
in the northern hemisphere
would change,

00:23:15.875 --> 00:23:19.333
because the atmosphere would be
getting a lot of energy

00:23:19.333 --> 00:23:21.999
from the ocean throughout
the year.

00:23:21.999 --> 00:23:24.125
It would also change the oceans
because the oceans

00:23:24.125 --> 00:23:26.375
would be receiving a lot
of solar radiation

00:23:26.375 --> 00:23:28.000
that they wouldn\'t normally get.

00:23:28.000 --> 00:23:30.375
it would have very far-reaching
consequences

00:23:30.375 --> 00:23:34.041
and nobody is really sure
exactly what would happen

00:23:34.041 --> 00:23:36.291
in that kind of scenario.

00:23:36.291 --> 00:23:37.999
One of the main reasons

00:23:37.999 --> 00:23:39.792
we put so much effort
and emphasis

00:23:39.792 --> 00:23:42.625
into doing the detailed
research work on sea ice

00:23:42.625 --> 00:23:44.083
is exactly for that reason.

00:23:44.083 --> 00:23:46.667
We need to understand that now
so that we can

00:23:46.667 --> 00:23:50.125
make reasonable predictions
about what the future holds.

00:24:07.834 --> 00:24:10.250
- We always think of the Arctic
as a desert.

00:24:10.250 --> 00:24:11.917
It\'s not a desert.

00:24:11.917 --> 00:24:13.709
While it\'s ice covered
and snow covered,

00:24:13.709 --> 00:24:15.792
yes the light cannot
penetrates the water come...

00:24:15.792 --> 00:24:18.458
But there is other life forms,
there is...

00:24:18.458 --> 00:24:20.083
there\'s other life forms.

00:24:20.083 --> 00:24:21.999
But the big \"bloom\" comes
in summer.

00:24:21.999 --> 00:24:24.375
When it comes, it\'s very
important, it\'s drastic.

00:24:24.375 --> 00:24:26.875
So if you would put
the quantity of biomass

00:24:26.875 --> 00:24:28.999
produced in a month
in the Arctic,

00:24:28.999 --> 00:24:29.999
it may be the equivalent

00:24:29.999 --> 00:24:33.917
of what\'s produced
in a year in the tropic.

00:24:53.542 --> 00:24:55.583
(narrator): In the Arctic,

00:24:55.583 --> 00:24:57.458
everything is linked

00:24:57.458 --> 00:24:59.125
to a distinctive light cycle.

00:24:59.125 --> 00:25:01.000
Marine organisms
have adapted

00:25:01.000 --> 00:25:04.667
to a very short but extremely
productive summer.

00:25:04.667 --> 00:25:08.250
Because the food chain
contains only a few links,

00:25:08.250 --> 00:25:12.000
energy is transferred
to the top of the chain

00:25:12.000 --> 00:25:13.291
very efficiently,

00:25:13.291 --> 00:25:15.333
from the diatoms
to the copepods,

00:25:15.333 --> 00:25:18.834
to small fish like Arctic cod,

00:25:18.834 --> 00:25:20.333
to seal,

00:25:20.333 --> 00:25:24.125
and lastly, to the polar bear.

00:26:12.000 --> 00:26:15.333
- Polar bears only feed
when there is ice.

00:26:15.333 --> 00:26:17.999
They feed in the summer,
to some extent

00:26:17.999 --> 00:26:19.999
but it\'s only supplementary.

00:26:19.999 --> 00:26:21.542
And in order to feed properly

00:26:21.542 --> 00:26:25.417
to gain weight to allow them
to survive through the year,

00:26:25.417 --> 00:26:26.999
they have to have
a platform of ice

00:26:26.999 --> 00:26:30.000
because their principal food
is the ringed seal.

00:26:30.000 --> 00:26:32.999
And without ice,
they can\'t hunt seals.

00:26:32.999 --> 00:26:35.999
Not really; they have to hunt
seals through the ice

00:26:35.999 --> 00:26:37.875
when the seal is at his
breathing pause.

00:26:37.875 --> 00:26:41.792
So the ice is essential
for them in that sense.

00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:50.709
- Well this population here

00:26:50.709 --> 00:26:52.709
and the James Bay population
to the south

00:26:52.709 --> 00:26:55.291
are the southernmost
polar bears in the world.

00:26:55.291 --> 00:26:56.999
And it could be argued

00:26:56.999 --> 00:27:01.500
that they found
a sort of a balance here,

00:27:01.500 --> 00:27:04.166
that is very fragile.

00:27:31.291 --> 00:27:33.333
- In the summer,
the bears don\'t eat.

00:27:33.333 --> 00:27:34.999
When they come off
the pack ice in July,

00:27:34.999 --> 00:27:38.875
unless they find a dead blue
whale or a dead caribou or --

00:27:38.875 --> 00:27:40.250
they\'re not actively eating

00:27:40.250 --> 00:27:44.999
unless they find something
that they can scavenge on.

00:27:44.999 --> 00:27:47.667
They are totally dependent
on their fat reserves

00:27:47.667 --> 00:27:48.999
to survive through the summer.

00:27:48.999 --> 00:27:51.959
So if they have
a shorter period of time

00:27:51.959 --> 00:27:52.999
to build up the fat reserves

00:27:52.999 --> 00:27:55.999
over the course of the winter
when the pack ice is there,

00:27:55.999 --> 00:27:57.291
obviously it will affect
their ability

00:27:57.291 --> 00:28:00.417
to survive through
the summer.

00:28:00.417 --> 00:28:02.792
- In recent years,

00:28:02.792 --> 00:28:04.125
it has been observed

00:28:04.125 --> 00:28:08.417
that the ice has been forming
later than traditionally.

00:28:08.417 --> 00:28:11.500
Something like 2 weeks later
on average

00:28:11.500 --> 00:28:12.999
over recent years.

00:28:12.999 --> 00:28:15.999
The ice at the same time
is leaving the bay,

00:28:15.999 --> 00:28:17.917
the freeze-up is occurring
sooner,

00:28:17.917 --> 00:28:18.999
and it\'s been observed --

00:28:18.999 --> 00:28:21.959
this is something like
two weeks as well.

00:28:21.959 --> 00:28:23.959
The problem in that

00:28:23.959 --> 00:28:27.875
is mostly related to
the emerging females with young.

00:28:27.875 --> 00:28:31.999
Because the bears who go onto
the Bay to feed in November time

00:28:31.999 --> 00:28:34.417
are able to feed
from then until July.

00:28:34.417 --> 00:28:36.792
And so for there to be
two weeks less of feeding,

00:28:36.792 --> 00:28:39.999
it isn\'t a good thing but it is
a little bit more manageable.

00:28:39.999 --> 00:28:42.458
However the female
who emerges with her young

00:28:42.458 --> 00:28:46.166
in March and April,
she only has about four months

00:28:46.166 --> 00:28:48.625
or slightly less
in which to feed.

00:28:48.625 --> 00:28:50.999
So to remove two weeks
from that,

00:28:50.999 --> 00:28:53.250
to have the ice leave the Bay
two weeks sooner

00:28:53.250 --> 00:28:58.375
is to reduce her feeding period
by something like 15%.

00:28:59.709 --> 00:29:00.583
And that is very significant

00:29:00.583 --> 00:29:03.667
and if that was to continue
in the future as it may,

00:29:03.667 --> 00:29:05.083
is going to possibly leave

00:29:05.083 --> 00:29:08.125
these animals with
an inadequate amount of time

00:29:08.125 --> 00:29:10.750
to feed themselves
and their young

00:29:10.750 --> 00:29:13.375
and to get them through
the period of the summer

00:29:13.375 --> 00:29:16.000
when they don\'t eat.

00:29:55.667 --> 00:29:57.709
(narrator): If the models
are accurate

00:29:57.709 --> 00:30:01.166
and the ice cap does
disappear around 2050,

00:30:01.166 --> 00:30:02.834
it is highly probable

00:30:02.834 --> 00:30:05.166
that a number of species
of marine organisms,

00:30:05.166 --> 00:30:08.208
including mammals,
that depend on ice

00:30:08.208 --> 00:30:09.999
will disappear as well.

00:30:09.999 --> 00:30:12.333
What will happen
to underwater life forms

00:30:12.333 --> 00:30:17.625
like ice algae that have evolved
to live under the ice?

00:30:32.291 --> 00:30:33.999
We know very little

00:30:33.999 --> 00:30:36.375
about the current arctic
marine ecosystem.

00:30:36.375 --> 00:30:38.999
How it evolved
and how variability

00:30:38.999 --> 00:30:42.208
and the physical environment
affects its biodiversity.

00:30:42.208 --> 00:30:46.375
This makes it difficult
to predict what will happen

00:30:46.375 --> 00:30:47.999
if the ice cover disappears?

00:30:47.999 --> 00:30:52.999
In this multi-layered marine
ecosystem, scientists analyze

00:30:52.999 --> 00:30:56.208
the varying biochemistry
of the water column

00:30:56.208 --> 00:30:57.959
at different depths.

00:30:57.959 --> 00:31:00.333
They\'re just beginning
basic research

00:31:00.333 --> 00:31:02.667
on viruses and bacteria.

00:31:02.667 --> 00:31:06.208
- Our first step
is to take samples

00:31:06.208 --> 00:31:08.667
from different layers
within the ocean.

00:31:08.667 --> 00:31:10.333
And basically what
we\'re trying to do

00:31:10.333 --> 00:31:12.583
is to understand the structure
and the functioning

00:31:12.583 --> 00:31:15.542
of this ecosystem.
How does this ecosystem work?

00:31:15.542 --> 00:31:17.792
And how will it change
in the future?

00:31:17.792 --> 00:31:19.083
How has it changed in the past

00:31:19.083 --> 00:31:21.375
in response to the variations
in climate?

00:31:21.375 --> 00:31:25.375
A lot of the life that we work
on isn\'t immediately obvious.

00:31:25.375 --> 00:31:28.542
It requires very special
sorts of techniques

00:31:28.542 --> 00:31:29.999
to penetrate deeper.

00:31:29.999 --> 00:31:33.125
In fact, it\'s really only been
in the last few years

00:31:33.125 --> 00:31:35.834
that we\'ve had the tools
that are really necessary

00:31:35.834 --> 00:31:38.250
to go beneath the surface
of the ocean

00:31:38.250 --> 00:31:39.250
and ask the question,

00:31:39.250 --> 00:31:43.917
What is the species diversity
in this incredible environment?

00:31:43.917 --> 00:31:47.166
And what we\'re seeing
in the process of this work

00:31:47.166 --> 00:31:49.417
is an extraordinary richness,

00:31:49.417 --> 00:31:52.166
an unbelievable richness
at all levels.

00:31:52.166 --> 00:31:55.250
It\'s extraordinary that here
we are in the 21st century;

00:31:55.250 --> 00:31:59.333
we still don\'t have names
for most of the species,

00:31:59.333 --> 00:32:03.999
most of the biomass that exists
out in the world ocean.

00:32:14.709 --> 00:32:17.542
So one of the central questions
is how much of the carbon

00:32:17.542 --> 00:32:20.417
is made available to the rest
of the food web

00:32:20.417 --> 00:32:21.999
and how much is lost.

00:32:21.999 --> 00:32:24.583
What are the sinks of carbon
in this ecosystem?

00:32:24.583 --> 00:32:27.250
We know that some
of the carbon is respired,

00:32:27.250 --> 00:32:29.917
is utilized by these
very small life forms.

00:32:29.917 --> 00:32:32.709
We really need to understand
that balance

00:32:32.709 --> 00:32:34.000
between these different
processes

00:32:34.000 --> 00:32:36.999
in order to be able to predict
the carbon flows

00:32:36.999 --> 00:32:39.999
and the energy fluxes
in the future.

00:32:45.041 --> 00:32:47.542
The absence of an ice cap
changes everything.

00:32:47.542 --> 00:32:50.625
In terms of the structure
of this environment,

00:32:50.625 --> 00:32:52.875
the nature of the habitats

00:32:52.875 --> 00:32:54.999
for the life forms
in this environment.

00:32:54.999 --> 00:32:58.166
There will be a change
in species without a doubt.

00:32:58.166 --> 00:32:59.917
There will be losers

00:32:59.917 --> 00:33:01.792
and there will be winners
in that change.

00:33:01.792 --> 00:33:06.333
Already, we are seeing in
the northern part of the Arctic

00:33:06.333 --> 00:33:08.709
the loss of complete ecosystems.

00:33:08.709 --> 00:33:11.959
Ice-based ecosystems, for
example, that are disappearing.

00:33:11.959 --> 00:33:14.917
Ancient ice systems dating
several thousands years

00:33:14.917 --> 00:33:19.667
have collapsed by an excess
of 50 or 60 or 70%.

00:33:19.667 --> 00:33:21.917
There are certain sorts
of ecosystems

00:33:21.917 --> 00:33:25.041
that will no longer be part
of the Arctic environment.

00:33:25.041 --> 00:33:26.834
These, in turn, will be replaced

00:33:26.834 --> 00:33:30.667
by other sorts of organisms,
other life forms.

00:33:34.999 --> 00:33:37.208
(narrator): Scientists
are just beginning

00:33:37.208 --> 00:33:38.999
to understand the role of oceans

00:33:38.999 --> 00:33:41.999
in atmospheric
carbon fluctuations.

00:33:41.999 --> 00:33:43.375
Current research

00:33:43.375 --> 00:33:46.999
is making it possible to develop
better climate models

00:33:46.999 --> 00:33:48.417
that may be able to predict

00:33:48.417 --> 00:33:52.709
the true winners and losers
of the coming change.

00:35:05.999 --> 00:35:09.625
- It\'s an ecosystem that\'s
tuned to the timing of the ice,

00:35:09.625 --> 00:35:12.999
to the timing of break-up,
to the timing of freeze-up.

00:35:12.999 --> 00:35:14.125
To the extent

00:35:14.125 --> 00:35:18.166
all of these things are
going to be impacted

00:35:18.166 --> 00:35:19.999
and they are going
to be changed.

00:35:19.999 --> 00:35:24.208
And by looking at models
and trends and observations,

00:35:24.208 --> 00:35:28.458
we can get an idea
of what is possible.

00:35:28.458 --> 00:35:32.250
We take those
to the policy makers

00:35:32.250 --> 00:35:34.375
and say this is our view
of possible futures

00:35:34.375 --> 00:35:37.542
and what are you going
to do about it.

00:35:37.999 --> 00:35:41.625
(TV): The state of emergency was
still in effect in Prague today,

00:35:41.625 --> 00:35:43.917
following the worst
flooding of the century.

00:35:43.917 --> 00:35:46.750
Makeshift barriers
were erected...

00:35:46.750 --> 00:35:48.999
- We\'re now in an energy crisis.

00:35:48.999 --> 00:35:51.458
And that\'s why I have decided

00:35:51.458 --> 00:35:55.750
to not have mandatory caps
on CO2.

00:35:55.750 --> 00:35:57.000
We\'ll be working with our allies

00:35:57.000 --> 00:36:00.875
to reduce greenhouse gases,
but I will not accept a plan

00:36:00.875 --> 00:36:04.625
that\'ll harm our economy
and hurt American workers.

00:36:05.166 --> 00:36:09.959
- This shows you the projected
change in surface temperature --

00:36:09.959 --> 00:36:13.333
year for year change
in surface temperature --

00:36:13.333 --> 00:36:15.625
incrementing one year at a time.

00:36:15.625 --> 00:36:19.583
And the clock will keep ticking
until you\'ve reached 2100

00:36:19.583 --> 00:36:21.542
and then, you\'ll see
that gradually,

00:36:21.542 --> 00:36:24.375
the whole surface of the Earth
becomes warmer.

00:36:24.375 --> 00:36:28.083
These red colours indicate
warmer temperatures.

00:36:36.125 --> 00:36:38.500
(narrator): Models predict
temperature changes

00:36:38.500 --> 00:36:40.583
that resemble what
the earth experienced

00:36:40.583 --> 00:36:44.583
during the end
of the last glaciation.

00:36:47.999 --> 00:36:50.792
- Under this scenario, the mean
temperature on the planet

00:36:50.792 --> 00:36:53.250
would increase
by three and a half degrees,

00:36:53.250 --> 00:36:54.500
unevenly distributed.

00:36:54.500 --> 00:36:57.959
The largest warming would occur
on the continents where we live.

00:36:57.959 --> 00:36:59.999
For example, in Europe:
four to six degrees.

00:36:59.999 --> 00:37:02.792
Moscow would have
the temperature of Paris,

00:37:02.792 --> 00:37:05.000
and Paris, the temperature
of Algiers.

00:37:05.000 --> 00:37:07.125
These are really
major climate changes

00:37:07.125 --> 00:37:10.125
that will have visible
consequences in our regions too.

00:37:10.125 --> 00:37:12.500
We believe the first
visible consequence

00:37:12.500 --> 00:37:16.583
is that half the Alpine glaciers
will disappear.

00:37:24.458 --> 00:37:26.792
- The glaciers,
wherever they are,

00:37:26.792 --> 00:37:30.291
they have a thing
like a bank balance, almost.

00:37:30.291 --> 00:37:31.625
And snow falls on them,

00:37:31.625 --> 00:37:34.917
and of course it falls from the
top to the bottom in the winter.

00:37:34.917 --> 00:37:36.999
And then, when the summer
comes around,

00:37:36.999 --> 00:37:41.625
what you get is that the snow
at the top stays,

00:37:41.625 --> 00:37:42.999
and lower down,

00:37:42.999 --> 00:37:46.999
the snow melts and if it melts
more than it accumulates,

00:37:46.999 --> 00:37:50.999
you\'ve got a negative
balance over a period of time.

00:37:50.999 --> 00:37:53.542
And in the Canadian Arctic,
there is no doubt,

00:37:53.542 --> 00:37:54.999
in the last 25 years,

00:37:54.999 --> 00:37:58.291
the glaciers are getting
more and more negative.

00:38:15.999 --> 00:38:18.125
- What\'s going on,
on a global scale,

00:38:18.125 --> 00:38:19.834
is that glaciers are melting.

00:38:19.834 --> 00:38:22.999
Almost all the glaciers
in the Arctic region,

00:38:22.999 --> 00:38:24.792
we know, are melting.

00:38:24.792 --> 00:38:27.166
And that water is now
being freed up

00:38:27.166 --> 00:38:28.999
and is going into the oceans.

00:38:28.999 --> 00:38:30.999
It\'s actually one of the things

00:38:30.999 --> 00:38:32.166
that complicates
shoreline erosion.

00:38:32.166 --> 00:38:34.959
Because if the
ocean level is rising --

00:38:34.959 --> 00:38:37.500
but it\'s rising because
glaciers are melting,

00:38:37.500 --> 00:38:39.625
not because sea ice
is melting.

00:38:39.625 --> 00:38:41.709
But also as you warm
the planet up,

00:38:41.709 --> 00:38:44.041
you increase the ocean levels
simply by expansion.

00:38:44.041 --> 00:38:49.041
You warm the water up
and it expands larger.

00:38:49.999 --> 00:38:52.667
If you combine those
two kinds of things

00:38:52.667 --> 00:38:54.500
with less sea ice in a region,

00:38:54.500 --> 00:38:57.375
and if you look
at the ocean here,

00:38:57.375 --> 00:38:59.166
in the Mackenzie Shelf area,

00:38:59.166 --> 00:39:00.999
the other problem with
shoreline erosion

00:39:00.999 --> 00:39:03.917
is because there is
less ice in this area,

00:39:03.917 --> 00:39:06.125
when the wind blows,
you get larger waves

00:39:06.125 --> 00:39:09.750
and those waves travel further
inshore and have more energy

00:39:09.750 --> 00:39:13.000
and can, of course, erode
the land mass more efficiently

00:39:13.000 --> 00:39:14.834
than in would have otherwise.

00:39:14.834 --> 00:39:17.999
So coastal erosion, of course,
has many impacts

00:39:17.999 --> 00:39:19.542
on local communities

00:39:19.542 --> 00:39:21.458
and the situation here
in Tuktoyaktuk

00:39:21.458 --> 00:39:24.999
is particularly problematic
because of the community

00:39:24.999 --> 00:39:26.083
that\'s located here.

00:39:26.083 --> 00:39:29.583
They have difficulty maintaining
the land mass for the housing

00:39:29.583 --> 00:39:32.999
as well as the infrastructure
for sewage and electrical

00:39:32.999 --> 00:39:35.834
and those types of things.

00:39:39.999 --> 00:39:42.041
- The ocean has
incredible inertia,

00:39:42.041 --> 00:39:43.999
which means that since
thermal expansion

00:39:43.999 --> 00:39:47.458
affects the entire ocean,
it will continue inexorably.

00:39:47.458 --> 00:39:49.834
If it\'s 50 cm at the end
of the century,

00:39:49.834 --> 00:39:53.208
it\'ll still be 50 cm at the end
of the next century.

00:39:53.208 --> 00:39:55.333
But the thing is,
from the moment

00:39:55.333 --> 00:39:58.750
the sea warms up by around
five degrees around Greenland,

00:39:58.750 --> 00:40:01.999
we\'re afraid the Greenland
ice sheet will partially melt.

00:40:01.999 --> 00:40:04.542
And the disappearance
of half the ice sheet

00:40:04.542 --> 00:40:07.542
would provoke a sea level rise
of three metres.

00:40:07.542 --> 00:40:11.500
Between that
and thermal expansion,

00:40:11.500 --> 00:40:14.041
the sea level could rise
by five or six metres.

00:40:14.041 --> 00:40:18.999
Not in the 21st century, but
let\'s say in the 23rd or 24th.

00:40:18.999 --> 00:40:21.792
But if we get to the end
of the 21st century

00:40:21.792 --> 00:40:23.999
and we\'re still
in that position,

00:40:23.999 --> 00:40:25.458
it will be almost inexorable.

00:40:25.458 --> 00:40:29.083
I believe we don\'t have
the right to do that.

00:40:57.667 --> 00:41:01.917
- Projecting future climate for
20 years from now, for example,

00:41:01.917 --> 00:41:04.625
it turns out
that those projections

00:41:04.625 --> 00:41:07.999
are not very sensitive
to the scenario

00:41:07.999 --> 00:41:10.250
that you use for
greenhouse gas emissions

00:41:10.250 --> 00:41:11.917
over the next 20 years.

00:41:11.917 --> 00:41:14.458
Because much of the warming
that will occur

00:41:14.458 --> 00:41:17.542
over the next 20 years
will be the result

00:41:17.542 --> 00:41:20.291
of past emissions
of greenhouse gases.

00:41:20.291 --> 00:41:22.834
That\'s something
the climatologists call

00:41:22.834 --> 00:41:23.667
the committed warning.

00:41:23.667 --> 00:41:26.000
So we\'ve already made
a commitment to future warming

00:41:26.000 --> 00:41:28.583
by changing the composition
of the atmosphere.

00:41:28.583 --> 00:41:31.999
The climate system presently
is not in equilibrium

00:41:31.999 --> 00:41:34.999
with that change of composition
of the atmosphere.

00:41:34.999 --> 00:41:36.625
And so even if we don\'t change

00:41:36.625 --> 00:41:39.709
greenhouse gas composition
of the atmosphere,

00:41:39.709 --> 00:41:42.458
if we manage to stabilize
the atmosphere composition,

00:41:42.458 --> 00:41:44.959
the climate will still try
to come in equilibrium

00:41:44.959 --> 00:41:47.792
with those changed conditions.

00:42:07.333 --> 00:42:08.750
- The idea that the Arctic

00:42:08.750 --> 00:42:11.125
is all part
of a global climate system

00:42:11.125 --> 00:42:13.250
has to always be kept in mind.

00:42:13.250 --> 00:42:15.500
And by being part of a system,

00:42:15.500 --> 00:42:19.583
that means if you push on it,
it may push back.

00:42:19.583 --> 00:42:21.583
It may react to what you do.

00:42:21.583 --> 00:42:25.875
And there have been three ideas
put forward

00:42:25.875 --> 00:42:28.417
whereby the Arctic
may respond

00:42:28.417 --> 00:42:31.999
by shutdown of the ocean
conveyor belt,

00:42:31.999 --> 00:42:34.667
or a modification of it.

00:42:34.667 --> 00:42:36.999
Another is a change
of the albedo of sea ice.

00:42:36.999 --> 00:42:39.250
And a third that isn\'t
getting too much attention

00:42:39.250 --> 00:42:42.458
but could be potentially
very serious

00:42:42.458 --> 00:42:47.041
is the release of carbon dioxide
and methane,

00:42:47.041 --> 00:42:48.999
which is also a greenhouse gas,

00:42:48.999 --> 00:42:53.458
from the permafrost and from
the methane hydrate layer

00:42:53.458 --> 00:42:56.125
that is buried deep
in the arctic soils.

00:42:56.125 --> 00:43:00.125
This is a different part
of the carbon cycle

00:43:00.125 --> 00:43:03.083
that biological oceanographers
study.

00:43:03.083 --> 00:43:05.458
They\'re looking at
the fast carbon cycle.

00:43:05.458 --> 00:43:08.166
What grows this year,
what recycles to the food chain.

00:43:08.166 --> 00:43:10.041
Now we\'re talking
about carbon products

00:43:10.041 --> 00:43:14.458
that have been stored in the
planet for millions of years,

00:43:14.458 --> 00:43:19.458
that are being -- may be --
released catastrophically

00:43:19.458 --> 00:43:22.999
in one big burp if you like

00:43:22.999 --> 00:43:24.875
into the atmosphere

00:43:24.875 --> 00:43:26.999
and then compound
the consequences

00:43:26.999 --> 00:43:29.709
of greenhouse gas warming.

00:43:35.999 --> 00:43:37.333
- There are many projections

00:43:37.333 --> 00:43:39.166
and they\'re beginning
to become more,

00:43:39.166 --> 00:43:42.999
which suggests that in a climate
that is warmer than today,

00:43:42.999 --> 00:43:45.999
we should expect more frequent
extreme precipitation events.

00:43:45.999 --> 00:43:49.542
That is, a shift in the
so called distribution

00:43:49.542 --> 00:43:51.999
of precipitation events
to be such

00:43:51.999 --> 00:43:54.999
that there will be
more extreme events.

00:43:55.709 --> 00:43:58.250
(radio): ... northern Europe has
been hit by torrential rains.

00:43:58.250 --> 00:43:59.917
In several cities,
the heavy rains

00:43:59.917 --> 00:44:02.291
and violent winds of recent days
have paralysed

00:44:02.291 --> 00:44:04.125
transportation
and economic activity...

00:44:04.125 --> 00:44:07.125
- Let\'s say, a more variable
climate, more extremes.

00:44:07.125 --> 00:44:10.834
That would be seen, if nowhere
else in insurance policies.

00:44:10.834 --> 00:44:13.583
The real problem is not
the average climate,

00:44:13.583 --> 00:44:15.000
although that\'s a problem, too.

00:44:15.000 --> 00:44:18.166
It\'s the variability.
We fear greater variability.

00:44:18.166 --> 00:44:20.333
For the moment
we don\'t have proof,

00:44:20.333 --> 00:44:24.333
but the risk of a warmer climate
would be more storms,

00:44:24.333 --> 00:44:26.917
more tornadoes,
more adverse effects

00:44:26.917 --> 00:44:30.250
on infrastructures
and our daily life.

00:44:47.667 --> 00:44:50.625
(narrator): Climate change
models are helping us

00:44:50.625 --> 00:44:54.999
to see our home, planet Earth,
in new ways.

00:44:54.999 --> 00:44:57.250
We now realize

00:44:57.250 --> 00:44:59.208
that the natural balance
is changing.

00:44:59.208 --> 00:45:01.999
And it\'s clear that we are
playing a role

00:45:01.999 --> 00:45:05.458
in the changes we are
witnessing today

00:45:05.458 --> 00:45:07.999
and are forecasting
for tomorrow.

00:45:07.999 --> 00:45:09.291
The question is,

00:45:09.291 --> 00:45:12.625
how can we survive
these changes?

00:45:29.041 --> 00:45:31.125
- And what we need to do,
of course,

00:45:31.125 --> 00:45:32.999
if we want to reduce emissions,

00:45:32.999 --> 00:45:35.625
we have to get to levels
significantly below --

00:45:35.625 --> 00:45:37.166
more then 50% globally,

00:45:37.166 --> 00:45:39.625
that\'s including India,
China etc.,

00:45:39.625 --> 00:45:41.166
less than 1990 levels.

00:45:41.166 --> 00:45:43.375
And that has to happen
very rapidly.

00:45:43.375 --> 00:45:46.166
And then we\'ll stabilize our
levels of greenhouse gases

00:45:46.166 --> 00:45:47.999
at four times preindustrial.
That\'s a level

00:45:47.999 --> 00:45:52.417
that hasn\'t been seen since
the dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

00:46:07.834 --> 00:46:08.999
- I have a clock on my desk

00:46:08.999 --> 00:46:12.208
that has a little polar bear
going around in the water

00:46:12.208 --> 00:46:14.500
and it reminds me

00:46:14.500 --> 00:46:16.834
that time is passing.

00:46:16.834 --> 00:46:20.291
We do need to begin
preparation.

00:46:20.291 --> 00:46:24.125
We have to do things
to keep what we have.

00:46:24.125 --> 00:46:25.458
And I just hope

00:46:25.458 --> 00:46:30.667
that my grandchildren don\'t look
at my clock on my desk

00:46:30.667 --> 00:46:36.417
and say, What\'s that white
bear going around in there?

00:46:39.750 --> 00:46:42.999
Well, to, to be confident
of our future,

00:46:42.999 --> 00:46:44.875
we have to act now.

00:46:44.875 --> 00:46:48.999
There\'s a saying that in
the absence of new information,

00:46:48.999 --> 00:46:52.375
decisions will be based
on the assumption

00:46:52.375 --> 00:46:55.083
that things will not change.

00:46:55.083 --> 00:46:57.250
Policy will go on

00:46:57.250 --> 00:47:00.792
as if we live in a frozen world

00:47:00.792 --> 00:47:02.917
and the one thing that we know

00:47:02.917 --> 00:47:04.917
is that climate variability
is real

00:47:04.917 --> 00:47:08.000
and it\'s large
and it has gone on

00:47:08.000 --> 00:47:10.792
since the Earth became a planet.

00:47:10.792 --> 00:47:14.208
We have to --

00:47:14.208 --> 00:47:17.208
everyone of us put
whatever talent we have,

00:47:17.208 --> 00:47:19.875
make whatever effort
we\'re able to do

00:47:19.875 --> 00:47:26.709
to prepare for
the inevitable change.

00:47:26.709 --> 00:47:27.999
- From Singapore to Manila,

00:47:27.999 --> 00:47:29.999
everyone\'s wearing
anti-pollution masks,

00:47:29.999 --> 00:47:32.583
while in Indonesia, forest fires
continue to rage...

00:47:32.583 --> 00:47:35.000
- As far as the future
of the planet is concerned,

00:47:35.000 --> 00:47:37.375
I still think that one
of the things

00:47:37.375 --> 00:47:40.875
that isn\'t emphasized enough
is population growth.

00:47:40.875 --> 00:47:44.999
And consequently using
so much energy.

00:47:44.999 --> 00:47:47.291
And once that\'s
gotten control of,

00:47:47.291 --> 00:47:50.542
then things may go better but
it\'s going to be a rough ride,

00:47:50.542 --> 00:47:54.333
I think, a really rough ride
for over 50 years,

00:47:54.333 --> 00:47:56.999
maybe 100 years more.

00:47:59.041 --> 00:48:00.999
- Two large wildfires

00:48:00.999 --> 00:48:02.999
covering 187,000 acres
were two miles apart

00:48:02.999 --> 00:48:06.000
and drawing closer Thursday
in southwestern Oregon.

00:48:06.000 --> 00:48:08.959
With 17,000 more
residents warned,

00:48:08.959 --> 00:48:11.875
they may have to evacuate
with only half an hour\'s notice.

00:48:11.875 --> 00:48:14.917
The state has already battled

00:48:14.917 --> 00:48:17.667
more then a dozen fires,
all started by lightning,

00:48:17.667 --> 00:48:19.083
that have burned

00:48:19.083 --> 00:48:22.166
some 350,000 acres in the state.

00:48:24.834 --> 00:48:26.792
- We must remain optimistic

00:48:26.792 --> 00:48:30.959
because this is only one of
the problems facing our planet.

00:48:30.959 --> 00:48:32.583
I hope we\'ll succeed,

00:48:32.583 --> 00:48:34.667
but our entire mindset
must be changed,

00:48:34.667 --> 00:48:38.667
in terms of energy production,
energy consumption, and travel;

00:48:38.667 --> 00:48:40.375
we must take responsibility.

00:48:40.375 --> 00:48:42.875
The only way, as far
as we\'re concerned,

00:48:42.875 --> 00:48:44.375
to face up to our responsibility

00:48:44.375 --> 00:48:46.542
is to start right away
with concrete measures.

00:48:46.542 --> 00:48:49.291
They may not be particularly
effective at first,

00:48:49.291 --> 00:48:51.125
but the only way,
for example,

00:48:51.125 --> 00:48:53.083
to influence
developing countries,

00:48:53.083 --> 00:48:55.667
is to impose constraints
on ourselves.

00:48:55.667 --> 00:48:58.834
- Factories in Northern
Italy\'s industrial heartland

00:48:58.834 --> 00:49:00.750
are attempting to return
to normal

00:49:00.750 --> 00:49:03.583
after the floods that have
devastated the region.

00:49:03.583 --> 00:49:05.999
But it is the country\'s
farmers who appear

00:49:05.999 --> 00:49:08.166
to have suffered the most
in the disaster.

00:49:08.166 --> 00:49:10.250
- Climate change certainly
is a global problem.

00:49:10.250 --> 00:49:13.000
But it\'s a global problem
that hasn\'t been created

00:49:13.000 --> 00:49:14.875
by everyone in the globe.

00:49:14.875 --> 00:49:16.291
That is,
the industrialized world

00:49:16.291 --> 00:49:19.250
is the world that has created
the problem

00:49:19.250 --> 00:49:22.000
and the problem has
no bounds, of course,

00:49:22.000 --> 00:49:23.041
where its impacts are felt.

00:49:23.041 --> 00:49:26.083
So I think there\'s a great onus
on the developed world

00:49:26.083 --> 00:49:28.333
to assist those
in the developing world

00:49:28.333 --> 00:49:29.999
through the transfer
of clean technologies,

00:49:29.999 --> 00:49:32.875
through the assistance
in their method for adaptation

00:49:32.875 --> 00:49:34.999
to the consequences
of climate change.

00:49:34.999 --> 00:49:36.417
But we must show
leadership,

00:49:36.417 --> 00:49:38.417
because the problem
was caused by us

00:49:38.417 --> 00:49:41.792
and the solutions will
also have to be made

00:49:41.792 --> 00:49:43.375
and given by us as well.

00:49:43.375 --> 00:49:46.709
So in fact, I think a lot
of people don\'t realize

00:49:46.709 --> 00:49:49.999
that there is a great link
between the climate change issue

00:49:49.999 --> 00:49:50.999
and the global security issue.

00:49:50.999 --> 00:49:53.999
When you have a problem
created in one part,

00:49:53.999 --> 00:49:55.291
that has consequences in others

00:49:55.291 --> 00:49:57.667
that sows the seeds
for discontent.

00:49:57.667 --> 00:50:00.208
(radio) ... not a drop of rain
has fallen in over five weeks.

00:50:00.208 --> 00:50:03.375
The drought has lasted so long
it has deprived cattle farmers

00:50:03.375 --> 00:50:06.125
of much of their fodder
and caused production to drop.

00:50:06.125 --> 00:50:11.000
Farmers are keeping an
anxious eye on the barometer.

00:50:18.375 --> 00:50:20.583
(narrator): Today,
we are experiencing

00:50:20.583 --> 00:50:25.166
climate change that is extremely
rapid by historical standards.

00:50:25.166 --> 00:50:27.208
And scientists are predicting

00:50:27.208 --> 00:50:31.999
a cascade of upheavals
with devastating effects.

00:50:33.999 --> 00:50:37.041
The Arctic is like
a frontier outpost

00:50:37.041 --> 00:50:38.917
that helps us recognize

00:50:38.917 --> 00:50:42.542
the scope of what
is happening early on.

00:50:44.583 --> 00:50:46.041
In the history of evolution,

00:50:46.041 --> 00:50:49.625
species have always adapted
to climate variations

00:50:49.625 --> 00:50:53.166
by moving from one region
to another.

00:50:54.125 --> 00:50:59.125
Tomorrow, where will the
species of the Arctic go?

00:51:03.999 --> 00:51:09.375
Captioning by CNST, Montreal